Tennessee Statewide Survey — October 2026
New Poll: Blackburn Holds Double-Digit Lead in Tennessee Governor's Race
Blackburn leads Green by 11.5 points among likely voters, with strong support from both men and women
TENNESSEE (October 19, 2026) — Marsha Blackburn leads the race for Governor of Tennessee by 11.5 points, according to a new statewide survey of 635 likely voters conducted by Spry Strategies October 10–16. Blackburn draws 43.5% of the vote, compared with 32.0% for Democrat Jerri Green, 11.9% for Independent David Hatley and 1.4% for Independent Lauren Pinkston. Ten percent of voters remain undecided.
Blackburn's lead holds across the electorate. She leads among both women and men, and she posts large margins in rural and suburban Tennessee. Voters are highly engaged: 91% say they are extremely likely to vote on November 3.
Key Findings
• Blackburn leads by double digits. Her 11.5-point lead over Green is well outside the survey's margin of error.
• No gender gap. Blackburn leads among women 43.1% to 31.5% and among men 43.9% to 32.5%.
• Ahead in every region. Blackburn leads in East Tennessee (43.2% to 29.6%), Middle Tennessee (44.3% to 32.5%) and West Tennessee (42.3% to 36.1%).
• Strong Republican base. Blackburn wins 73.5% of Republicans overall and 84.7% of MAGA Republicans.
• Commanding leads outside the cities. Blackburn leads 53.2% to 17.9% among rural voters and 50.0% to 32.7% in the suburbs.
• Undecided voters lean Blackburn. When undecided voters were asked to choose, more picked Blackburn (25.1%) than Green (18.5%).
• Green remains unknown to many voters. 38.6% of likely voters either have no opinion of Green or have never heard of her.
• More voters approve than disapprove of Blackburn's Senate job performance: 49.0% approve and 46.1% disapprove.
• Republican leaders are in positive territory. President Trump's job approval stands at 54.1% approve to 44.5% disapprove, and Senator Bill Hagerty's at 52.2% approve to 35.3% disapprove.
Tennesseans Want Accountability From AI Data Centers
By more than 2 to 1, Tennessee voters oppose building AI data centers in their own communities: 62.1% oppose and 26.7% support. Voters are more divided on construction elsewhere in the country (38.3% support, 44.0% oppose).
The most popular policy path is accountability rather than a halt. A plurality (36.3%) want data centers to keep building but be held more accountable, for example by paying local property taxes and meeting environmental standards. That includes 45.2% of Republicans. Another 31.7% favor pausing new construction until stronger rules are in place, 15.7% would roll back state tax breaks, and only 5.6% want to continue as things are now.
TN Voters Concerned About Socialism and Communism
Of the issues tested, voters ranked socialism and communism as most important heading into the midterm election (28.7%), followed by the decline of religious values in America (20.6%) and AI data centers (17.8%). Artificial intelligence (13.3%) and government surveillance (12.7%) round out the top five. Among Republicans, 43.8% name socialism and communism as their top issue.
Asked what worries them most about AI, voters most often name the spread of false or misleading information (21.3%) and loss of jobs (18.3%), followed by a lack of government regulation (14.0%) and environmental and energy costs (12.4%). Just 3.5% say nothing about AI worries them.
AI use is widespread but uneven. About a third of likely voters (35.2%) use AI tools such as ChatGPT, Claude, Grok or Copilot at least a few times a week, while a majority (52.9%) use them rarely or never.
About the Survey
This survey was conducted by Spry Strategies among 635 likely voters in Tennessee from October 10–16, 2026. Respondents were contacted via SMS-to-web using a sample drawn from voter file records and screened for likely voter status. Results were weighted to reflect the demographic and political composition of Tennessee likely voters. The margin of sampling error is approximately ±3.89 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, with larger margins of error for subgroups.
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