NEW POLL: Conservatives Can Grow and Expand the New Trump Coalition with the Right Message and Outreach.
- Ryan Burrell
- Jul 22
- 3 min read
Updated: Jul 23
A new survey conducted by American Majority-Action and Spry Strategies in North Carolina,
one of America’s most volatile swing states heading into 2026, reveals a pathway for
conservative victories through targeted voter education, outreach, and early voting mobilization.
"This survey validates the work of organizations like American Majority Action, which led efforts to aggressively expand early voting, both in person and by mail, among low-propensity voters in North Carolina. American Majority Action remained highly disciplined in this mission, resulting in an educated, energized, and diverse group of voters ready to defend President Trump and the MAGA agenda in the midterms." -Ryan Burrell, President of Spry Strategies
The North Carolina Off-Year Primary Survey was conducted by Online Mobile and IVR Live
Landline Interviews from June 15 - June 21 among a random sample of 500 republican primary voters who vote in presidential primaries but not midterm elections. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Results are weighted. Some percentages in crosstab reports for this poll may not add to 100% due to rounding.
North Carolina Poll Highlights
82% of low-propensity Trump-aligned (or previously aligned) voters approve of the job President Trump is doing; 70% strongly approve.
78% approve of the current GOP majorities in Congress; 21% disapprove.
Background
According to the Pew Research Center, President Trump and other conservative candidates won in 2024 with a voter coalition more racially and ethnically diverse than in 2020 or 2016:
Among Hispanic voters, Trump reached near parity in 2024 (51% Harris, 48% Trump),
compared to losing 61%-36% to Biden in 2020.
Trump won 15% of Black voters—an increase from 8% four years earlier.
Trump benefited from higher turnout among those who supported him in 2020 and would have secured an equal or stronger victory if all eligible voters had participated.
Key Poll Findings
Low-Propensity Conservatives Will Vote Early Again—with Help
73% of those planning to vote in 2026 say they will vote early (68% in-person, 5% by
mail). This mirrors the early voting behavior of Trump-supporting North Carolinians in
2024 and suggests that conservative efforts to promote early voting may have lasting
effects if maintained with dedicated focus.
In 2024, conservatives made significant gains in early voting nationally, consolidating resources, building momentum, and focusing efforts on low-propensity and nontraditional conservative voters. In North Carolina, Trump and GOP voters outperformed Democrats in early voting.
Low-propensity Trump coalition voters understand the role early voting played in Trump’s 2024 victory. When asked:
“How important was improved early voting performance by Republican and Trump-favoring
voters in President Trump’s 2024 North Carolina victory?”
79% said it was important, with half stating it was very important.
Looking ahead:
78% believe it’s important for Republicans and Trump-aligned voters to embrace early
voting in the 2026 midterm election.
52% consider it extremely important.
“The results indicate that low-propensity conservative voters understand the importance of early voting and are willing to do it—but they’ll need help through education and mobilization,” said American Majority-Action President Ned Ryun. “The historic gains in 2024 didn’t happen by accident, and they won’t automatically happen again. It will require an all-hands-on-deck approach from the White House to the precinct level, with specific early voting plans starting early and continuing through Election Day.”
Ryun added that new strategies for 2026 must include outreach to new members of the Trump working-class coalition. “Efforts can’t simply be focused on reminding people when and how to vote early. We must begin talking to and listening to these voters early, helping them understand how crucial it is to maintain conservative congressional majorities—and adopting the right messages to engage them.”
Messaging Insights
89% of low-propensity voters believe it’s important for President Trump to maintain
GOP majorities in Congress, even if they are disappointed with the current Republican-
led U.S. House and Senate.
When asked which issues would most motivate them to vote in the 2026 midterms (for the firsttime):
32% — to protect Trump’s economic policies
24% — to continue strong immigration enforcement
14% — to avoid another Trump impeachment
7% — to maintain strong anti-crime policies
Potential deterrents to voting in 2026 include:
20% — GOP opposition to Trump’s policies
17% — economic recession
12% — backsliding on immigration enforcement
7% — overreach by President Trump himself
Encouragingly, nearly half of these lower-propensity voters said nothing would keep them from voting in 2026, suggesting they could shift from lower to higher propensity voters.
When prompted about possible consequences if Democrats retake Congress:
67% fear increased crime and terrorism
61% fear more illegal immigration
62% believe the economy will worsen
60% believe American culture will worsen
56% believe their families will be worse off
“A traditionally sleepy, low-turnout midterm election now favors liberals—a significant change from just a few years ago,” said Dallas Woodhouse, N.C. State Director of American Majority. “We must nurture this new coalition, engage with them early, and understand their concerns. Most importantly, we need to help them realize that the issues they care about are on the ballot in 2026—even if President Trump himself isn’t.”
Download Toplines & Crosstab Reports Here:
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